diff --git a/scripts/openclaw-cross-os-release-checks.ts b/scripts/openclaw-cross-os-release-checks.ts
index 4b6fe265fee..c667429927d 100644
--- a/scripts/openclaw-cross-os-release-checks.ts
+++ b/scripts/openclaw-cross-os-release-checks.ts
@@ -774,15 +774,35 @@ async function runUpgradeLane(params) {
       "--timeout",
       String(updateStepTimeoutSeconds()),
     ];
-    const updateResult = await runOpenClaw({
-      lane,
-      env: updateEnv,
-      args: updateArgs,
-      logPath: join(params.logsDir, "upgrade-update.log"),
-      timeoutMs: updateTimeoutMs(),
-      check: false,
-    });
+    const updateLogPath = join(params.logsDir, "upgrade-update.log");
+    let updateResult;
+    let usedWindowsPackagedUpgradeTimeoutFallback = false;
+    try {
+      updateResult = await runOpenClaw({
+        lane,
+        env: updateEnv,
+        args: updateArgs,
+        logPath: updateLogPath,
+        timeoutMs: updateTimeoutMs(),
+        check: false,
+      });
+    } catch (error) {
+      if (!isRecoverableWindowsPackagedUpgradeTimeoutError(error, process.platform)) {
+        throw error;
+      }
+      usedWindowsPackagedUpgradeTimeoutFallback = true;
+      appendFileSync(
+        updateLogPath,
+        `\n[release-checks] Windows baseline updater timed out after fetching candidate; falling back to direct candidate install: ${formatError(error)}\n`,
+      );
+      updateResult = {
+        exitCode: 124,
+        stdout: "",
+        stderr: formatError(error),
+      };
+    }
     const usedWindowsPackagedUpgradeFallback =
+      usedWindowsPackagedUpgradeTimeoutFallback ||
       isRecoverableWindowsPackagedUpgradeSwapCleanupFailure(updateResult, process.platform);
     if (usedWindowsPackagedUpgradeFallback) {
       logLanePhase(lane, "update-fallback-install");
@@ -1362,6 +1382,22 @@ export function isRecoverableWindowsPackagedUpgradeSwapCleanupFailure(
   );
 }
 
+export function isRecoverableWindowsPackagedUpgradeTimeoutError(
+  error,
+  platform = process.platform,
+) {
+  if (platform !== "win32") {
+    return false;
+  }
+  const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);
+  return (
+    /\bCommand timed out:/u.test(message) &&
+    /[/\\]openclaw\.mjs update --tag http:\/\/127\.0\.0\.1:\d+\/openclaw-current\.tgz --yes --json --timeout \d+/u.test(
+      message,
+    )
+  );
+}
+
 export function shouldRunPackagedUpgradeStatusProbe({
   platform = process.platform,
   usedWindowsPackagedUpgradeFallback,
diff --git a/test/scripts/openclaw-cross-os-release-checks.test.ts b/test/scripts/openclaw-cross-os-release-checks.test.ts
index ba536f51e0d..c197732a3ab 100644
--- a/test/scripts/openclaw-cross-os-release-checks.test.ts
+++ b/test/scripts/openclaw-cross-os-release-checks.test.ts
@@ -37,6 +37,7 @@ import {
   CROSS_OS_AGENT_TURN_TIMEOUT_SECONDS,
   isImmutableReleaseRef,
   isRecoverableWindowsPackagedUpgradeSwapCleanupFailure,
+  isRecoverableWindowsPackagedUpgradeTimeoutError,
   looksLikeReleaseVersionRef,
   normalizeRequestedRef,
   normalizeWindowsCommandShimPath,
@@ -730,6 +731,21 @@ describe("scripts/openclaw-cross-os-release-checks", () => {
     ).toBe(true);
   });
 
+  it("recognizes the shipped Windows updater packaged-upgrade timeout", () => {
+    const error = new Error(
+      "Command timed out: C:\\hostedtoolcache\\windows\\node\\24.15.0\\x64\\node.exe C:\\Users\\RUNNER~1\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\openclaw-upgrade-q9DsA7\\prefix\\node_modules\\openclaw\\openclaw.mjs update --tag http://127.0.0.1:49951/openclaw-current.tgz --yes --json --timeout 1500",
+    );
+
+    expect(isRecoverableWindowsPackagedUpgradeTimeoutError(error, "win32")).toBe(true);
+    expect(isRecoverableWindowsPackagedUpgradeTimeoutError(error, "linux")).toBe(false);
+    expect(
+      isRecoverableWindowsPackagedUpgradeTimeoutError(
+        new Error("Command timed out: node openclaw.mjs update --tag openclaw@beta"),
+        "win32",
+      ),
+    ).toBe(false);
+  });
+
   it("skips the packaged upgrade status probe after the Windows fallback install", () => {
     expect(
       shouldRunPackagedUpgradeStatusProbe({